Assuming Your Facts Hurts When They Are Wrong

Katie McDonough, of Salon, offers up an excellent example of why objectivity, distance and reasoning are superior to emotion and passion – at least if you are concerned with being right – when analyzing current events and policy.  Yesterday, Ms. McDonough penned an article on Salon titled “It makes me really depressed”: From UVA to Cosby, the rape denial playbook that won’t go away.  Sadly, and embarrassingly for Ms. McDonough, her article turns out to be a perfect example of someone seeing only what she wants to see and disregarding evidence that might be contrary to a pre-determined position.

Ms. McDonough was upset that Sabrina Rubin Erdely’s Rolling Stone article on rape had been questioned by a number of journalists who found issues with the journalistic standards used in writing the article and questioned the veracity of some of the claims.  These articles did not claim that the article was false, but merely that there were questions that should have been answered that weren’t.  However, for Ms. McDonough, the questioners are to blame because, in her view, their questioning detracts from the central idea of the piece – that rape on campus is a problem.

That Ms. McDonough thinks that examining the truth of a story is a problem is, sadly, reflective of a leftist mindset that cares less about truth than about “ideas.”  It’s a bit reminiscent of 1984 – the truth is malleable; all that matters is what people believe.  For Ms. McDonough, the Salon story is about rape on campus and it matters less that the underlying facts are correct than that attention is being brought to an issue she feels needs to be addressed.  However, sacrificing the truth on the alter of expediency has a price – and that price is that you wind up with egg on your face when you make heroes out of liars, cheats or just plain flawed people.  (I would say just ask Al Sharpton, but given his prominence in city politics and at the White House these days I would just be damaging my own point).

And so we come to the reckoning.  Rolling Stone has just retracted the story because “there now appear to be discrepancies in Jackie’s account, and we have come to the conclusion that our trust in her was misplaced.”  Ms. McDonough probably doesn’t care, since she cares more about the cause than the truth, but for those who are not blinded by personal feelings, this revelation makes a mockery out of much that is contained in the article.

Also in the same article, unfortunately for Ms. McDonough, she chose to attack the people who have cast doubt Lena Dunham’s account of being raped.  Once again, for McDonough, the questioning of the alleged facts should be outside the bounds of inquiry because it only serves to detract from the larger point that rape is a problem.

There is no way to talk about rape and escape this kind of interrogation, this questioning of character and motives and bias. How many of the people calling foul on this report as a matter of journalistic ethics in investigative reporting were also attacking Lena Dunham for including a chapter in her memoir about being raped while at college. Dunham used a pseudonym for her rapist in that personal essay, but she was still accused of lying — and ruining a man’s life.

The problem for McDonough is that, once again, the facts do matter.  It is possible that Dunham’s account is accurate.  However, an investigation by Breitbart was unable to confirm many of the claims that Dunham made.  McDonough may not think that is a problem, but for some of us false accusations of rape (or any other serious crime) are a big deal.  For one, it hurts the person who is accused and is innocent.  More broadly, for people interested in truth – as opposed to just being interested in political ideology – it is offensive to create issues and drive narratives based on lies, even if the cause is worthy.

 

 

John Nichols Makes The Case for Scott Walker

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John Nichols Makes The Case for Scott Walker

Over at The Nation, John Nichols is ostensibly very concerned with Republicans’ well-being. He offers his counsel – free of charge – that the Republicans should be wary of putting Scott Walker on the ballot as their candidate in 2016. I can think of no better endorsement. Nichols’ fear of a Walker run should move him right to the top of the 2016 list.

Let’s look at his arguments and consider their merit. Nichols’ lead reason is that a majority of Wisconsinites don’t want Walker to run. Leaving aside that the poll he cites is from May 21st, and thus six months stale, why do the wishes of Wisconsinites (including Democrats) matter more than others when it comes to deciding whether Walker should be on the Republican ticket? It is a national election.

Reason number two, from Nichols, is that Walker hasn’t taken more than 53% of the vote in Wisconsin. But Wisconsin is a purple state, and Walker is fairly conservative. If he can pick up 53% of the vote in a purple state, imagine what he can do across the country.   Furthermore, basic math says that if Walker can consistently win 52% or 53% of the electorate then he will win the Presidency. While I appreciate Nichols’ view that winning a higher percentage is better than winning a lower percentage, America is a fairly evenly divided country, in many respects, and nobody running for President is likely to have a blowout in terms of the overall percentage. It also might behoove Nichols to look up President Obama’s win percentages in the last two presidential elections, in 2008 it was 52.9% and in 2012 it was 51.1%. I’d say Walker is looking pretty good.

Nichols’ third argument is that Wisconsin is a swing state, but not a purple state.  It is a bit of a head scratcher:

There is little reason to doubt that Walker will soon enter the formal hinting stage, go through the “exploratory” stage and start bidding for the Republican presidential nomination. Throughout the process, he will make grand pronouncements about his appeal in a supposedly “blue” state—glossing over the fact that Wisconsin is actually a classic swing state that sends a conservative Republican to the Senate along with a progressive Democrat, that backs Democrats for president but that often elects Republican governors and that polls suggest is more bitterly divided than any in the nation.

Nichols argument may be true, but I fail to see how it makes a difference vis-à-vis Walker as a candidate. If we assume a theoretical voter base of 40% Republican, 40% Democrat and 20% Independent, Walker achieves the same result by getting every Republican and 11% of the Independents as he does by getting 35% of the Republicans, 10% of the Independents and 6% of the Democrats.

Point number four is that Walker has not run and won in a Presidential election year when turnout is higher. Presumably, Nichols is arguing he would have lost had he done so. That may or may not be true, but it seems irrelevant with respect to Walker running for President. His national campaign is going to be affected by numerous factors, of which turnout is jut one.

Finally, having given us the benefit of his wisdom, Nichols leaves us with this:

Indeed, while it is unlikely that Scott Walker will actually be the Republican nominee for president, his selection by the GOP would in all likelihood produce another progressive moment in Wisconsin. Just as Paul Ryan’s addition to the 2012 Republican ticket failed to carry Wisconsin for the GOP, so polls have regularly suggested that a Scott Walker-led ticket would very probably fail to carry the state in the higher turnout presidential election of 2016.

With everything I know about John Nichols’ background and political disposition, I would think, based upon his analysis, that he would be cheering for Republicans to nominate Scott Walker. Clearly, he believes that Walker has no chance, and thus a Democratic victory would be assured if he was the nominee. How can I square this with his advice that “Republicans would be wise to consider the numbers…”?

I suspect John Nichols is not being entirely honest with me.

Sally Kohn Is Not Self-Aware

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How do you break reality to someone who is completely unself-aware?  That should be the question on the minds of Sally Kohn’s friends.  She has just penned a column for CNN titled “A plea for sanity in a GOP Congress,” in which she charmingly conflates her worldview with that of America.  Not realizing that she is pretty far on the fringe of her party, she excoriates the Republicans for everything they have done and then gives them advice on how they should conduct themselves going forward.  Here is a little flavor of self-delusion at work:

For six years, Republicans have condemned President Barack Obama and the Democratic agenda. Regardless of how the midterm results panned out due to a handful of races in red and maroon-ish purple states, the fact remains that the Democratic agenda is broadly and strongly supported.

and:

Most Americans support extending unemployment benefits, passing paid sick leave, lowering student loan rates and raising the minimum wage, as was reflected in ballot measure results across the country Tuesday.

I hate to break it to Kohn, but a few ballot measures that passed in different states isn’t exactly smoking gun evidence of her claims.  I believe there were four ballot initiatives that raised the minimum wage.  Four divided by fifty equals 8%.  I wouldn’t stake a claim of “most Americans support” based on an 8% figure.

Further according to Kohn:

Going into this election, while only 23% of Americans have a “very positive” view of Obama and just 12% view the Democratic Party very positively, the favorability percentage for the Republican Party is even lower — just 7%, according to one survey. Not exactly time to spike the football.

A word of advice: using old data to support a claim that has been superseded by new data is not a winning argument.  Kohn quotes a poll taken before the election, but now we have the election results, so we don’t need the poll.  From the election’s results, we can infer that the percentage of people that have a low opinion of the Democratic party’s and Obama’s handling of the country’s affairs is higher than those that have a low opinion of the Republican’s chances to run things better.

The denial continues:

Sure, the American people blame both parties for gridlock. But when asked, they place more blame with Republicans. Now that they have full power in Congress either to compromise or not with the White House, Republicans have no more excuses.

If Kohn is right, then a LOT of people must have made a mistake when they filled out their ballots.  Clearly she is wrong.  I should also note that Kohn cited a poll from July of 2013 to bolster her claim in what I regard as something akin to journalistic malpractice.  Kohn seems to think that if a number has ever been published it can be used to justify a policy argument.  I presume she wouldn’t find it satisfactory if I took a poll from the 1980s regarding views on gay marriage to make some sort of ridiculous claim that America was overwhelmingly against it – nor would it be.

There are a number of other examples of wishful thinking in Kohn’s piece – how the country really is bent towards the Democratic view of the world, and she offers all sorts of intellectually weak arguments to support her theory.  However, reality looks much different.  The proof that she is living in a fantasy are the House elections, Senate elections, governors’ elections and legislatures’ elections.  At every level of government her arguments have been repudiated.  It takes a true idealogue with rose colored glasses to put forth the claims that she makes.  That is not to say that in two years’ time the overall tenor of the country won’t change drastically, but as of today her arguments bear no relation to reality.

Literally, Stupid

Brian Beutler has a horrendous piece in the New Republic today.  I just want to focus briefly on the article’s title because it is so poorly written.  The title is:

Obama Just Lost the Battle for the Senate. It’s Time He Waged War for Real.

Somebody at the New Republic, perhaps Beutler himself, needs a remedial English course that explains metaphors, or else Beutler is calling for a very extreme response to last night’s elections.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejZC5r5wS64

Dear oh Dear, White People

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Where to begin with the American Prospect’s October 28th piece by Nathalie Baptiste titled “After Ferguson, ‘Dear White People’ Arrives Right On Time?” It is a mess. Let’s start with the article’s subject. There is a new film – fictional – called “Dear White People” that examines the lives of students at Winchester University, which is supposed to be an Ivy League college. I have not seen the film, so I will assume and stipulate that the content contained within it is accurately recounted by Ms. Baptiste. According to Ms. Baptiste, in the film Samantha White (how subtle) runs for head of a dorm which h

Photo by: https://www.flickr.com/photos/calliope/

Photo by: https://www.flickr.com/photos/calliope/

as traditionally been all black (the dorms sound more like fraternities and are actually houses in the film). She wins. Samantha also hosts a radio show called “Dear White People.” Apparently, she gives advice regarding race relations on her show, generally aimed at telling white people that they need to change their behavior and attitude.

The film doesn’t sound particularly interesting to me, but what I do find fascinating is Ms. Baptiste’s take on the movie and her linking it to recent events. According to Ms. Baptiste:

But the most important moment in the film is when Samantha White, defines racism: “Black people can’t be racist, she says. “Prejudiced, yes, but not racist. Racism describes a systemic advantage based on race. Black people can’t be racists since we don’t stand to benefit from such a system.” The treatment of white rioters and black protesters by the mainstream media is an accurate reflection of this definition. [emphasis in the original]

In the wake of the ongoing protests in Ferguson, Missouri, over the police shooting of Michael Brown, an unarmed black teenager, Dear White People is a cultural assessment that arrived right on time. Look at how Ferguson protesters were labeled as “rioters” and “thugs” while white students who rioted at a pumpkin festival for no apparent reason were simply “unruly” kids. That’s but one of many forms of the systemic privilege the Samantha White character is referencing.

This is all, to put it mildly, bunk, starting with the Samantha White character’s absurd definition of racism. It is simply wrong. Merriam-Webster defines racism as:

1: a belief that race is the primary determinant of human traits and capacities and that racial differences produce an inherent superiority of a particular race

2: racial prejudice or discrimination

Not only is the White character incorrect, she is as incorrect as it is possible to be – the definition of racism is, in fact, precisely what she claims it is not. Racism, as a definition, has absolutely nothing to do with power – it is a subset of prejudice. If we had a Venn diagram, we could draw a big circle and label it “prejudice.” Inside that circle, we would have smaller circles for racism, anti-Semitism, sexism, etc. The fact that the movie’s writer and director came up with a concept of racism that is inaccurate and that Ms. Baptiste thinks it is worth quoting is baffling, unless understood in the context of a purely ideological motive.

Transitioning from applauding a patently incorrect definition as an important moment in cinema, Ms. Baptiste makes a tendentious case that the riots in Ferguson and the riots at the New Hampshire Pumpkin Festival are reflective of White’s definition. Her argument is that the protestors in Ferguson were labeled one way (as “unruly) and those in New Hampshire another (as “rioters” and “thugs”). It is terrible argument for at least two reasons. First, the labeling of the students as “unruly” kids comes from the President of Keene State College who was commenting on that particular incident. Others have labeled the students who took part in the riots as rioters. The fact that Baptiste can find one person who described the rioters in New Hampshire (and if it make her feel any better, I will call them rioters) as unruly does not in any way reveal some shocking double standard. She has cherry picked her data to make her argument without any evidence that the anecdote she pulls out is truly reflective of a broader sentiment.

Second, it would be absurd to suggest that what happened in New Hampshire and what happened in Ferguson are the same, and thus should be treated the same way, which Baptiste is implicitly arguing. In Ferguson there was an organized movement to protest a perceived injustice that turned violent. Many of the protestors were adults. In New Hampshire, you had a bunch of college kids (and outsiders) who went wild. Although college students are technically adults, we tend to grant them more latitude in their actions because they are still, generally, somewhat immature. In the New Hampshire episode, the riots were basically about having fun. They were always going to be limited in scope by the amount of fun that the rioters were having. I am not excusing them. People in college should know better and should be punished (arrested, prosecuted) for wantonly destroying property and hurting people with reckless behavior. However, to equate what was essentially a wild party caused by drunks with a destructive riot that involved sober actors makes little sense.

The best part of Ms. Baptiste’s piece comes in the antepenultimate paragraph:

 One doesn’t need to look any further than the vitriol spewed at President Barack Obama. Conservative pundits never miss a chance to claim that Obama is not a real American (see: white). He’s been called the food-stamp president, the affirmative-action president, and has been accused of giving free stuff to black people. (Six years into his presidency, I am still waiting for my presents.)

I find this to be fascinating because it shows how people with different viewpoints can look at the same set of facts and reach completely opposite conclusions. Ms. Baptiste clearly believes that conservatives’ dislike of Obama stems from a racial animus, yet all of the examples she uses to bolster her claim, to me, seem to do nothing of the start.

A reference to the food stamp president, as she appropriately links, is to the fact that the food stamp rolls have increased dramatically under Obama. Conservatives have a problem with this fact for reasons that have nothing to do with race. They are, generally, of the belief that we (as a society) should want fewer people on welfare and should try to help people find a way to earn a living rather than take government assistance. Furthermore, they believe that liberals like people on food stamps and other forms of welfare because it gives the central government more power, makes people more reliant on government and gives people a financial incentive to vote for liberals who promise them more government largess.

The reference to the “affirmative-action president” is to an article by Thomas Sowell, in which he argues that he just wants the best person to be elected President. He believes “best” is defined by the ability to do the job, not by whether the person is black or female or some other classification that has no bearing on ability. Undoubtedly, and given Ms. Baptiste’s subject matter, ironically, Obama benefited from being black in 2008 when he was first elected. He was in the right place at the right time in American history to find a significant chunk of the population, for various reasons, who wanted to see a black man in the White House. To argue that the color of one’s skin should not be a factor in selecting a politician is not an unreasonable or racist position for Mr. Sowell to have taken.

Finally, the reference to “free stuff” is also factually accurate. Obama, as do many politicians, particularly Democrats, ran for office partly on his ability to deliver pork to his supporters. In the example that Ms. Baptiste refers to, it was to health care. You can certainly argue that giving free health care to some or all of the population is a good idea. You can also argue that politicians of all stripes campaign on bringing home the bacon and that it is a legitimate function of their office – certainly a Thad Cochran or a Chuck Schumer would – however that doesn’t mean that opposing pork politics when Obama uses it is racist. If Romney had been running against a white president with the same policies I am more than confident he would have had exactly the same objection.

Liberals often claim conservatives don’t understand the reality of minorities in America and what they face. It would be a more credible claim if those same liberals did not go out of their way to racialize every issue and produce a narrative of racial intolerance where other explanations explain behavior better.

Naom Scheiber – It’s Okay to Lie

From the New Republic:

Let’s not beat around the bush here: The authorities in New York clearly lied in their press conference last night about Craig Spencer, the New York physician who contracted Ebola while volunteering for Doctors Without Borders in Guinea.

Noam Scheiber is okay with the lying because it served a higher purpose.  The problem is that if officials constantly lie, even for our good, eventually they will no longer be believed at all.  The damage is incremental, but accumulates until there is no faith left.

A Most Disturbing Statistic

There is a long piece in the Boston Globe Magazine from October 1 by Alexandria Neason about Common Core titled “Are teachers really ready for the Common Core?”  Whether Common Core is a good idea or a bad one, I don’t know enough to know, yet.  (Although, from what I have read so far, it looks pretty bad, at least in practice).  But what caught my eye in this article has nothing to do with Common Core:

More than 40 states, Washington, D.C., and four territories voluntarily adopted the standards, which were created by education experts with assistance from teachers. Massachusetts already had high standards after major bipartisan school reforms in 1993. Nearly half of the state’s fourth-graders are proficient on National Assessment of Educational Progress reading tests, and 55 percent of eighth-graders earn proficient scores on math tests — the highest rates in the country. But because teachers here are still no closer to closing the achievement gap between wealthy and poor students than educators elsewhere, the state adopted the Common Core standards in 2010. [emphasis added]

Think about this.  Only half of the most well-educated students in the country, at an aggregate state level, are considered proficient.  This speaks to a systemic failure of culture, parenting and teaching far more profound than anything a common set of standards can hope to fix.

Joan Walsh’s Freudian Moment

Joan Walsh doesn’t like Americans for Shared Prosperity’s new ad, which features a woman talking to the camera about how she is in a bad relationship, where she was promised all sorts of great things that turned out to be lies. The woman, it becomes clear, is referring to Barrack Obama. Walsh is offended by the ad and likens it to Todd Akin, but in dissecting the ad and listing what she hates, she reveals so much more about herself than the ad.

To start, she claims it diminishes Obama by making “[o]ur first black president is just another pair of pants, a smooth-talking liar who let us down. But hell, he is kind of cute, which is obviously why he won the women’s vote over John McCain and Mitt Romney.” Walsh is correct that the ad diminishes Obama – that is one of its purposes. It is, after all, a political attack ad. But it is Walsh who decides that there is some sort of racial component to the ad when she chooses to insert Obama’s race into her description of how it diminishes the president. If the ad were about Bill Clinton, would she have said “our 42nd white president?” Why is race even relevant in this discussion?

Walsh’s racial projections don’t stop there. She says the ad targets “[c]ollege-educated and unmarried women voters who may or may not be white.  (Barack’s soon-to-be-ex-girlfriend could be Latina.)” How nefarious! The video depicts a woman who “may be” Latina. While I am sure that the ad’s producers carefully chose the subject of the video, why does Walsh need to inject race into her criticism? She could simply have said “The ad is clearly targeting the most loyal Democratic constituency: College-educated and unmarried women voters.” The fact they may or may not be white is a tautology.

My favorite reveal, however, is Walsh’s penultimate paragraph, where she writes: “[n]ow that the ad has aired, and reaction has been almost universally scathing in the media (beyond the confines of sad Erick Erickson’s deeply sexist RedState.com), have any of its backers had second thoughts?” If one follows those links, the person is taken to just two articles, one in Vox (linked twice) and one in The Wire. However, neither article in any way backs up Walsh’s assertion that the reaction has been “almost universally scathing.” The Vox article only describes the video, states where it is airing and traces who made the video and who paid for it. Not only is it not scathing, it doesn’t even rise to the level of mildly perturbed. As for The Wire article, it isn’t particularly scathing, either. It quotes two people as saying the ad brings to mind an abusive relationship.

That Walsh sees racism everywhere is no surprise, after all, her book is called “What’s the Matter With White People: Finding Our Way in the Next America.” That she sees confirmation of her views in articles which say no such thing shows that her bias is so profound that there is no subject which is not wholly subsumed by her political affiliations.

Misdiagnosing Political Disease

I had not read anything by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar until the last few months. I have recently seen a few columns by him in Time Magazine, and I have been impressed with his analyses, logic and even-tempered approach. His August 17 column is no different in its tone, taking a serious look at class in America and what Ferguson means. However, while his writing is excellent, I find his analysis and conclusion to be fundamentally flawed.

To start, I will say that Mr. Abdul-Jabbar’s lead paragraphs are very interesting. While I had heard of Kent State, I had never heard of the Jackson State shootings – which is precisely Mr. Abdul-Jabbar’s point. The Jackson State shootings, as he explains happened as follows:

On May 14th, 10 days after Kent State ignited the nation, at the predominantly black Jackson State University in Mississippi, police killed two black students (one a high school senior, the other the father of an 18-month-old baby) with shotguns and wounded twelve others.

There was no national outcry. The nation was not mobilized to do anything. That heartless leviathan we call History swallowed that event whole, erasing it from the national memory

And, unless we want the Ferguson atrocity to also be swallowed and become nothing more than an intestinal irritant to history, we have to address the situation not just as another act of systemic racism, but as what else it is: class warfare.

Mr. Abdul-Jabbar’s first point here is well-taken: the murder of white student protestors at Kent state elicited an outcry while the murder of black students did not. That was unfair in a society where all people are supposed to be equal. However, it isn’t surprising. Society in the 1970s was fairly racist across the board. Furthermore, in the 1970s the country was dominated by a small oligopoly of media outlets who exercised control over the news and decided what was and was not important. If those outlets decided that the murder of black boys was unimportant, there were no significant outlets that could change that. Today, there is less of a chance of that occurring due to the fragmentation of the media and new technologies. Mr. Abdul-Jabbar’s second point, that Ferguson is representative of class warfare, is not so well-taken. While I agree with many of the points that are made in the column about how the poor are often poorly served by the state (and Mr. Abdul-Jabbar’s central point is that it is not race, but class that makes incidents like Ferguson a reality), to say it is class warfare is to mistake an outcome for a motive.

And it is here that Mr. Abdul-Jabbar not only goes off course, but uses conspiracy rhetoric to attempt to explain the United States. That starts with such phrases as “[a]nd that’s how the status quo wants it” to creating a mass of people called the “One Percent” (capitals in the original) who, according to Abdul-Jabbar, need to “keep the poor fractured by distracting them with emotional issues like immigration, abortion and gun control so they never stop to wonder how they got so screwed over for so long.”

This argument fails on two levels. The first is that the claim of the “One Percent” itself is utter nonsense (a point which Mr. Abdul-Jabbar himself recognizes later in the piece when he says there are a few good apples who are wealthy and he doesn’t mean to include everyone who has money in his One Percent). There is no One Percent in the sense of a large body of people conspiring to keep the underclasses down. The wealthy in this country comprise free market Republican energy tycoons, big government Democratic venture capitalists, industrialist, newspaper magnates, highly paid trial lawyers, surgeons, small business owners, etc. They come from all over the country and hold vastly different views. While they certainly share wealth, status and move in the same circles, they are not a monolithic group – by any stretch of the imagination – when it comes to their politics and their views on class. The second is that the “One Percent”, or even a small percentage of that group, wishes to keep the poor fractured. The top one percent may be wealthier than other citizens, but I will guarantee you that they are no different in terms of their humanity and their compassion. If Mr. Abdul-Jabbar were to ask the wealthiest people in our society whether they want a more just, more equal, less discriminatory society where everyone does better, I doubt he would find one person who would say no. He might find vastly different views on the means by which those goals are achieved and their order of priority (which is more important, equality of opportunity or result, for instance) but he won’t find many who oppose the concepts themselves.

Mr. Abdul-Jabbar’s column, at best, over-simplifies societal divisions to the point of meaninglessness. At worst, it seeks to explain US social policies as the result of some conspiracy amongst a wealthy, privileged class against the poor in America. It is an absurd assertion, not only because there is no evidence, but also because even the concept that the 3.2 million people that comprise the “One Percent” share a vision is laughable.

Moms Demand Action – Lack Logic

Bloomberg-affiliated groups are going after Kroger in a bid to get the chain to ask its customers to stop carrying firearms.  From the Wall Street Journal:

“When a company like Kroger doesn’t have a policy around guns, it seems to send a signal to gun extremists that they tacitly support or even endorse things like open carry,” said Shannon Watts, founder of Moms Demand Action.

Or maybe it just means it’s not an issue that doesn’t even register, just a though.